Tuesday 15 December 2015

Minority left government in Portugal after former government falls

Article published in Katoikos

The Secretary-General of the Socialist Party, António Costa, became PM in Portugal. 

As expected, the shaky Portuguese right-wing government led by a centre-right coalition fell, toppled by a left-wing alliance. Considered by many as a milestone, the collapse of the Portugal à Frente coalition paved the way for a left-led government headed by the alliance formed by the Socialist Party (PS), the Left Bloc and the Communist Party together with the Greens. 

After a motion of rejection to remove the government carried out by the left alliance, 123 MPs voted in favour of the motion and 107 MPs voted against it. The final decision was then in the taciturn president’s hands, Aníbal Cavaco Silva, who nominated the Socialist secretary-general António Costa as prime minister, after almost two weeks of political deadlock and pressure from the left. After the October 4th general elections, Portugal suffered moments of political impasse, with the country divided between factions, one apparently in favour of paying higher taxes and the other composed of the anti-austerity citizen bloc. 

Overall, the Portuguese people do not believe in utopias, however, they feel as if there is nothing more to lose. After years of social rights suffering enormous blows, a shrinking middle class and increased poverty, an opportunity presented itself to the left to jointly rescue a country slowly rising from the ruins. Some call it a coup d’état, others a remarkable moment for Portugal. “We don’t have a coup here: we have democracy. 

Whoever lacks the votes in the national assembly cannot govern,” said Catarina Martins, the leader of the Left Bloc. While the president was disregarding his political role by nominating Costa, an online petition was circulating urging the president against nominating the left-wing coalition whilst the JSD, the youth sector from the Social Democratic Party (PSD), created an online flyer featuring Lenin, circulating misinformation by implying the country would be ruled by radicals. 

Later on, president of the CDS/PP, Paulo Portas, delivered a speech upholding the same line of thought, focusing on the sinister threat of a fragile Communist Party in Portugal. In turn, Antonio Costa declared that “the nervous reaction from the right would soon be replaced by a responsible stance.” Furthermore, the PS secretary-general reassured external creditors – ECB, EC and IMF – on the viability of his social reformist programme and Portugal’s obligations to its lenders. 

What is the Left Compromise? 


The joint position among the three parties is, however, the result of a positive transition amongst the vast differences and divergences of the various factions. The three leaders – António Costa, Catarina Martins and Jerónimo de Sousa – have agreed on substantial matters rather than focusing on sensitive and disruptive questions such as the EU or NATO. Above all, the collective consciousness about the current situation in Portugal is common to all the actors; therefore, measures with a beneficial social impact as well as those focused on reducing the economic asphyxia in the country are a priority and serve as the engine which made the mutual agreement possible. 

Briefly, the PS, the major force of the leftist coalition in government, claims that its programme will reduce the deficit to below 3% by 2016, lower the VAT to 13% in the restaurant sector, ensure that a majority stake in TAP remains within the State, increase the minimum wage to €600 by 2019, cancel transport privatisation of Lisbon and Porto, cancel fees for abortions, cut down fees and restore transportation for hospital patients and ensure there are fewer students per class as well as provide free textbooks. Hence, the PS, the Left Bloc and the Communist Party/Greens are all in consensus regarding these measures and have officially declared them in their joint statement. 

 European Reactions 


At the European level, the chair of the EPP in the European Parliament, Manfred Weber, has shared depreciative comments on Twitter, saying the “future of the people and Portugal’s stability are at stake. Left-wing parties act against the will of the voters and the winners of the elections.” In return, former MEP and LIVRE/TDA leader Rui Tavares has fired back, wittily asking the MEP whether he was able to count. “Is 123 MPs less than 107? Do not confuse things further,” he accused. Ironically, one day after the government’s fall, Lisbon started the session leading the European stock market in gains. 

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, The Daily Telegraph’s international business editor, has not hidden his contentment over the upturn of politics in Portugal; moreover, Evans-Pritchard claimed Germany has lost a key ally in the southern country, the “good student” who scrupulously followed the German recipe in a somewhat dubious policy of indebtedness

By overthrowing the right-wing government and thus forming a left bloc of anti-austerity opposition, there is a possibility that it may spill over to their Spanish neighbor should PSOE (Partido Socialista Obrero Española) win the upcoming election and form a coalition with the left-wing parties. “There would then be an emerging ‘Latin bloc’ with the heft to confront Germany and push for a fundamental overhaul of EMU economic strategy. At the very least, the political chemistry of the eurozone would change beyond recognition,” analysed Evans-Pritchard.

Thursday 10 December 2015

Régionales en France : le populisme en hausse dans toute l'Europe

Article published in Cafebabel

Marine Le Pen pendant son discours © Flickr Rémi Noyon

Le paysage politique de la France contemporaine a longtemps été dominé par les Républicains et les Socialistes mais le scénario est en train de changer. La crise, le chômage et la menace terroriste ont été les meilleurs amis du Front National qui a profité du mécontentement général de la population pour monter au créneau. 

La semaine dernière, la France a voté au premier tour pour élire ses représentants régionaux pour les six prochaines années. Sans vrai surprise, le Front National (FN), le parti d’extrême-droite dirigé par Marine Le Pen, a gagné dans six des treize régions françaises lors d’un résultat historique (environ 28% de l’électorat au niveau national). Les Républicains (LR), menés par Nicolas Sarkozy ont eux rassemblé 26,7% de l'électorat et le Parti Socialiste (PS) de François Hollande 23,1%. Parmi les régions qui ont le plus voté pour l'extrême droite, on trouve le Nord-Pas-de-Calais et la Picardie, pont de passage pour plusieurs refugiés vers le Royaume-Uni, où le FN a conquis 40,64% de l'électorat contre 24 ,96% pour la droite de Xavier Bertrand et 18,12% pour le socialiste Pierre de Saintignon. Le 13 décembre prochain, tous les partis qui ont eu plus de 10% seront à nouveau dans cette course électorale. 

Qu’est-ce que ces élections représentent pour la France? 


D’un point de vue pragmatique, ces élections vont élire les futurs représentants régionaux qui vont devoir s'occuper de domaines comme le tourisme et le développement régional. À ce propos et au sujet de la région de Calais, la dirigeante du FN, Marine Le Pen a déclaré sur la radio RMC que ce n’est pas du tout « le rôle de la région que de payer des moustiquaires aux détenus au Sénégal dans le cadre de la lutte contre le paludisme ». Le Pen a déclaré aux médias que les malades graves et les enfants autistes de cette région de France sont obligés d'aller en Belgique pour se faire soigner à cause du manque de structures pour les accueillir dans leur région. 

Dans une perspective symbolique, ces élections montrent "l’effet Front National" qui pourrait se répandre "grâce" à leur propagande populiste. Le Pen victimise le peuple Français en lui faisant croire qu’il doit être sauvé par un État fort. "Je considère qu'une région doit pouvoir, dans ses marchés publics, donner un avantage aux entreprises locales, à l'emploi local", a affirmé Marine Le Pen sur France 3. Ses éclatantes prises de positions sur l’immigration ont aussi été relayées sur Twitter: "Nous avons 9 millions de pauvres en France dont 1 million dans notre région qui pensent qu'ils doivent être prioritaires" et «"Je rétablirai les frontières nationales et arrêterai de financer l'accueil des migrants". 

Selon le démographe Hervé Le Bras, le Front National a réussi à resserrer son emprise dans les régions où il avait déjà recueilli une somme considérable de votes au cours des élections européennes de mars 2014. "Ce vote confirme ce que les sondages précédents avaient annoncé, mais les observateurs officiels ne veulent pas l'admettre: le Front national est désormais sans aucune ambiguïté le premier parti de la France", a déclaré Le Pen. Cette déclaration fait craindre le pire alors que l’opinion publique en faveur du FN gagne en force. Les présidentielles de 2017 pourraient mener à la tête du pays cette extrême-droite qui a promis de changer la France, à commencer par une renégociation des traités afin de rompre avec la construction européenne et restituer la primauté du droit national sur le droit européen. 

Toutefois, rien n'indique que Le Pen gagnera les présidentielles de 2017, comme le soulignait l’analyste François Beaudonnet lors du résultat des Européennes en 2014. Par contre, le Financial Times considère que cette victoire est possible et représente une menace pour le futur de la France. Des deux côtés du spectre politique, Les Républicains de Sarkozy et le Parti socialiste d’Hollande s’accusent mutuellement d’avoir laissé l’extrême droite monter. Sarkozy a déjà assuré qu’il y aura un débat qui suivra le deuxième tour des élections: la ligne que Les Républicains suivront à l’avenir est en jeu. François Hollande et Nicolas Sarkozy devront être en mesure de montrer aux Français qu’il est possible d’avoir une société prospère qui peut résoudre les problèmes tels que la sécurité et l'emploi, sans tomber dans l'extrémisme.

 Le contexte européen 


En effet, la situation sociale actuelle en Europe et en France a permis à l’extrême-droite de parvenir au pouvoir en utilisant la crise économique, la hausse du chômage et la menace terroriste comme des instruments de persuasion de vote. Au Royaume-Uni, le premier ministre David Cameron n’a pas caché son désir (le même que celui de Le Pen) d'abandonner l’Union européenne ou en tout cas, de renégocier les traités.

Il est aujourd'hui indéniable qu’une grande partie de la population européenne est devenue eurosceptique. La victoire de Cameron lors des législatives au Royaume-Uni a montré cette tendance qui se répand à travers l’Europe, à travers le fait qu'une considérable section de la population britannique souhaite quitter l’Union européenne. 

Les élections européennes de 2014 ont, elles aussi, montré qu'une vague de populisme menaçait l’Europe, avec la hausse de l’extrême-droite. La France a enregistré 25% de votes eurosceptiques, la Grande-Bretagne 27%, le Danemark 26,5%, l’Italie 20%, l’Autriche 20% et enfin la Hongrie 15%.

Tuesday 1 December 2015

Paris Attacks and Brussels in Lockdown: An Immediate and Convenient Consequence?

Military was deployed in the city of Brussels. Dimitri Devuyst © Flicker

The hideous and deplorable attacks in Paris on November 13th have unleashed a wave of fear throughout Europe triggering the lockdown of the Belgian capital Brussels. The clocks were pointing at 1am on Friday 20th, when the Belgian government decided to raise the terror alert to its maximum, 4 out of 4, due to a “serious and imminent” threat similar to the tragic events in Paris claimed by the Islamic State, “with multiples attacks in different places,” said the Belgian prime minister Charles Michel. As a result, schools and subways were closed, the military with its armored vehicles were deployed in the main metro stations in Gare Central and Schuman, and police was reinforced all over the city center, patrolling a once quiet and peaceful city. 

 Counter Terrorism Operation in Brussels 


The weekend was long and Brussels soon became a ghost city with the major touristic sites nearly empty including terraces and traditional centers of commerce across the town. By Sunday night, something surreal for the Bruxelloises happened: a manhunt had begun following a counter-terrorism operation in the capital. The security forces have concentrated the operation in Molenbeek, where they conducted a door-to-door inspection searching for Salah Abdeslam, the fugitive from the Paris attacks. 

Other raids took place in Anderlecht, Schaerbeek, Jette, Woluwe-St-Lambert and Charleroi, where a total of 16 suspects were arrested (even though most of them were released the following day). No guns or explosives were found. However, Abdeslam is said to have crossed the country headed towards Germany; the alert was supposed to remain at its highest level and Brussels was supposed to continue living in lockdown at least until Monday, November 30th. But on Thursday the 26th, the Belgian government decided to drop the threat level to 3. 

Being myself a resident from Schaerbeek, I experienced a somewhat sinister soirée last Sunday, with security forces patrolling the street and the building where I live, followed by warnings not to go near any windows or even post pictures on social media divulging the location and activities of the security forces. As this was not natural, the feeling of unease and restlessness was palpable. On Monday, the metro and schools were closed with most people working from home. In fact, the mass media were painting a worse picture than it actually was, thus increasing the sense of fear amongst the populace. Progressively, public transportation is getting back to normal. However, Wednesday the 25th, the Belgian government announced that the counter terrorism actions that occurred last Sunday had “most likely” prevented a terror attack in Brussels. But what do we really know? 

 What’s the impact on Society? 



Should we be concerned over our civil liberties? David Blackwell © Flickr

Suddenly, out of the blue, Brussels residents are divided between fear—naturally imposed by the unsubtle security reinforcement—and apprehension— concerning the scant information provided by the government and the police. It is, however, understandable that confidential information must be kept safe in order to avoid ending up in the wrong hands. Thus, George Orwell’s prescient masterpiece 1984 has inevitably been on my mind quite a lot recently, as well as so many other wary minds. Orwell’s introduction of doublethink was ingenious and in its philosophical tone does put in perspective the days we are currently living in Europe. For Orwell, this mystifying concept meant no more than holding two contradictory ideas regarding the same subject and yet accepting both of them.  


What is happening in Europe? What is really happening in Europe? 


Beyond question, the carnage in Paris was horrific and I mourn for all the families grieving their loved ones. More than 130 human beings were killed in cold blood in a rather suspicious operation that has, now, conveniently restricted our civil liberties. All of a sudden, armed military and increased police have been deployed on the streets, France has closed its borders making the Schengen Area feebler than ever and the Commission has already announced the likely control over air passengers’ personal data flying within Europe. What is going to follow? 

With the mysterious and indestructible Syrian passport found at the crime scene, it was to be expected (not accepted) that the international community would turn against the Syrian people. The US is in uproar and in constant discord, with the majority of the Republicans against the entry of Syrian refugees in the country. Canada announced the rejection of single Syrian males, Sweden will deport around 22,000 migrants and Denmark revealed its intention to reject all refugees. Recently, French prime minister Manuel Valls declared, “Europe can’t accept more refugees”. In fact, President Hollande made himself clear regarding France’s position after declaring the repulsive attacks in Paris “an act of war”. The French have now found a legitimate argument to intensify its airstrikes in Syria not without trying to persuade other countries to follow them, such as the UK. As for the tenacious Germany, it’s been keeping its harsh and obstinate stance claiming that refugees must be accepted, as European values must prevail. 

In the midst of this political turbulence, some questions are popping up in people’s minds. Why would France’s government gag alternative media exposing weird coincidences connected to the Paris attacks, the very same media denouncing what the mainstream media doesn’t, such as claims that the French government had access to intelligence which illustrated that the attacks were going to happen? How can we accept that, finally, increasingly evidence about Turkey’s involvement with the Islamic State has been exposed and, still, the EU continues to close its eyes and cooperate financially with a country whose leader does not hide his fascist and corrupt tendencies?